The Syrian civil war has entered a significant new phase as Islamist rebels launched a massive offensive against President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, capturing half of Aleppo, Syria’s former manufacturing hub. The operation marks the most serious threat to Assad’s regime in four years and raises questions about the stability of his government.
Rebel Gains in Aleppo
The offensive, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), began in Idlib and rapidly advanced into Aleppo’s western districts. By Friday, rebels and their Turkish-backed allies had seized over 50 towns and villages with minimal resistance, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Government forces reportedly withdrew from several areas without firing a shot.
The operation resulted in heavy casualties, with the Observatory reporting 277 deaths, including 28 civilians, primarily due to Russian airstrikes.
Assad’s Allies Under Pressure
For years, Assad has relied on the support of Russia and Iran to maintain control over key regions. However, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have strained these alliances. Russia’s focus has shifted due to international tensions, while Iran-backed Hezbollah has faced setbacks from escalating Israeli strikes following the Hamas-led assault on Israel in 2023.
Civil War and Proxy Conflicts
Syria’s civil war, which began in 2011, has seen various international powers vying for influence. While Assad’s forces control over 60% of the country, opposition groups dominate the northwest, including parts of Aleppo and Idlib. Kurdish-led forces, supported by the U.S., hold the northeast.
The latest offensive demonstrates the evolving strength of opposition factions like HTS, which have invested in advanced resources and training for night operations, leveling the playing field against Assad’s forces.
Growing Vulnerability
Experts note that Assad’s regime appears increasingly fragile. Natasha Hall, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, highlighted how Israeli strikes on Iranian and Hezbollah targets have weakened Assad’s allies, emboldening the rebels. Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute observed that a similar offensive years ago would have been swiftly repelled, but today’s developments reflect the regime’s declining military capability.
The Road Ahead
The rebel offensive highlights the continued division of Syria, where multiple factions control key regions. While Assad’s forces have retained control over Damascus and other major cities, his hold on the northwest remains tenuous. As the conflict evolves, Syria’s future hangs in the balance, with the possibility of regime change looming larger than ever.
